Last week, the dollar hit its biggest weekly gain in 11 weeks, gold and silver were hit hard, and oil prices hesitated. Looking forward to this week, China and the United States will open trade negotiations, Iran's nuclear agreement is at stake; the US blockbuster PCE inflation report is coming, the Federal Reserve interest rate resolution is bound to bombard the market, and April's non-agricultural report will start a super week closing battle!
Sino-US trade negotiations are about to open the global market and hold your breath.
Recently, the frequent escalation of Sino-US trade conflicts has affected the nerves of global investors. According to CNBC, U.S. National Economic Adviser Kudrow said that the U.S. delegation may visit Beijing around May 3 and 4, and the Sino-U.S. trade negotiations will officially open.
It is worth noting that from the perspective of personnel composition, the US delegation is dominated by hawkish trade figures with China, including Treasury Secretary Nuchin, Trade Representative Lethizer, National Economic Commission Director Kudrow, and White House Trade Adviser Navarro. The White House has no small number of tough "three giants" against China.
In addition, May 1 is the expiration date of the US tariff exemption for steel and aluminium in Europe, when the Trump Administration may make a relevant statement. If the attitude is tougher, it means that the previous visit of German and French leaders to the United States has not achieved positive results, and may trigger a second round of trade conflicts.
US Blockbuster PCE Inflation Report is about to come out
At 20:30 on Monday, the U.S. Department of Commerce will issue its March PCE report. The monthly rate of personal expenditure in March is expected to be 0.4% and the former value is 0.2%. The annual rate of core PCE price index in March is expected to be 1.9% and the former value is 1.6%. San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Williams had previously expressed confidence that the core PCE would reach its target of 2% this year. Investors need to pay close attention to the possibility that the Fed will raise interest rates significantly in June if the performance of the inflation report meets or exceeds expectations.
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Resolution
At 2:00 a.m. on Thursday, the Federal Reserve's FOMC will announce its interest rate resolution and policy statement. There will be no press conference at that time. The market generally predicts that the Federal Reserve will remain unchanged and focus on the description of inflation in the policy statement. The Federal Reserve meeting is expected to consolidate the possibility of a rate hike in June, and the market is closely watching whether officials will reveal clues to four rate hikes this year.
In April, the non-agricultural report will make a grand appearance and start the battle of closing Super Week.
At 20:30 Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release its April non-farm employment report. In March, only 103,000 new non-farm workers were employed, which was far below expectations and greatly disappointed the market. Looking ahead to the non-agricultural report, the market generally believes that the non-agricultural new employment population will rebound substantially in April, with an expectation of 188,000 people. In addition, the market forecast that the U.S. unemployment rate will fall further to 4% in April. It is worth noting that investors will also pay close attention to April wage growth in the United States, which will affect market expectations of inflation.
The fate of Iran's nuclear agreement is at stake. Will the oil market deep-water bomb detonate?
Recently, the risk of the breakdown of Iran's nuclear agreement has risen sharply. Trump said last Sunday that there must be renegotiation of Iran's nuclear agreement. It is not clear what will happen next, but the United States will not "play games". Iranian media Fars News reported that Iran would not accept a revised nuclear agreement to cater to the United States.
U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo said there is still time to repair the flaws in Iran's nuclear agreement, and the United States has not yet decided whether to withdraw the agreement. However, he also pointed out that Iran is the world's largest terrorist sponsor, and if the deficiencies of the agreement cannot be remedied, Trump is unlikely to continue the agreement after May this year.
[Daily Warehouse Receipt Express]
Last Friday, the dollar slipped slightly, and the euro rose slightly. Reuters IFR set up the current price of the euro / dollar, which was trading at 11:00 today. The yen was hit by the Bank of Japan's inactivity and lower inflation expectations. Reuters IFR believes the yen may have a chance to rebound, liquidating the dollar/yen single, and ultimately earning 3 points.
Meanwhile, Reuters IFR immediately created a new US dollar/yen limit blank sheet with an entry position of 109.3. The agency pointed out that the dollar/yen climbed to its highest level since February 8, but then showed signs of falling from the high and measured the 100-day moving average. The dollar/yen trend is forming a bearish candle line. Daily RSI indicators suggest that the currency will not rise again in the short term. Reuters IFR forecasts that the dollar/yen will retreat to 108.
